I had a look on the evolution of Cardmarket’s price trend and number of available items for several cards of Innistrad: Crimson Vow. The data reflects a nonfoil regular art card and doesn’t take into account the language the card is printed in. But this should give an impression of trends. If you would like to have a similar graph of a particular card, let me know in the comments below (I’ll limit the amount of graphs to like 5 or so that I create this way, since it still takes me some time to generate them).
Some Mythic rares
First up, “Cultivator Colossus”, which is listed on top of Cardmarket when you order the VOW singles from most expensive.
Here, I think it is interesting to note how the number of available items quickly drop off after it’s peak has been attained. Not sure if this would be a good indicator to define a good investment / spec given it’s price increase of 47.9% between it’s lowest and max price.
A mythic card which seems to have a peak of available items around 1144. Initial price started around 11.81 euro and spiking today around 16.
Next mythic card is “Necroduality”.
Judging on the starting price, people were subjectively less interested in this card given it’s lower initial pricing w.r.t. the Cultivator Colossus. We do see a similar, albeit lesser pronounced, drop in the number of Available Items right after the peak after set release, which seem to be indicating that the card might be of interest (Anyway, the number of cards analyzed is not sufficiently high to be able to clearly define some indicators of cards that might perform well, but it’s a start ;))
Next mythic card, is “Cemetery Desecrator”, graph I decided to create after seeing the a reddit-post: “What the hell happened to Cemetery Desecrator”. And thus seems to be a less performing mythic card.
People seem less interested in this card, the number of available items appear relatively flat after peaking out. Although starting out at a price point of 6 euro, the price drastically falls of as soon as people start getting the card in their hands as of the prerelease.
No hard rule defined yet, but it seems that the peak of available items for the mythics seem to be in the 1000-2000 range. That is something I might look into for another another post.
What about rares?
“Thalia, Guardian of Thraben”
A first rare I had a look at. Special about this card is that it is a reprint. Sadly, couldn’t cross check the price trend for this card as to determine if the starting price point might be linked to the price trend of the existing cards. Nothing that stands out to me in this graph. Price Trend does not yet seem to catch up with the steady decline in the number of available items.
Next, we have “Hullbreaker Horror”, which is the first rare that shows up when ordering the singles by “most expensive first” on cardmarket.
What stood out to me here is the quick drop in the number of available items as of prerelease and the sudden increase of the price Trend. However the relatively stable amount of available items seems to have a negative impact on price trend, given the relatively quick drop in value (40% between 2/12 and 28/12).
As a very quick deduction, available items for rares seem to peak around 2500-3000… As I noticed above, I might have a more indepth look at where these peaks lie in a subsequent post.
That’s it for what I have been up to today 😉
Data requests
Welcoming Vampire
Olivia, Crimson Bride
Toxrill, the Corrosive
This article originally appeared on reddit.