We notice that the equivalent value of the precon deck was around 80 euros on february, 15th. With a steep decline around the precon release date of April, 1st. What’s interesting to notice is how the price trend is going back up, about 2 weeks after a ‘local minimum’ was reached. Meaning, that if you wanted to pick up some of the cards ‘cheaper’ then usual, that would have been a good time.
Mono White Aggro – Singles
Faceless haven
Since Faceless Haven has been mentioned already, let’s have a quick look at it’s supply and price evolution for the last couple of weeks. The huge drop in value late january, continuing early february finds it’s explanation in the ban annoucement, this with an albeit low increase in supply. On the other hand, we see the supply skyrocketting with 3000 items on the release date of the precon deck.
Intrepid Adversary
Intrepid Adversary, a one of in the challenger deck, saw an increase of about 1000 available items on release date.
Dimir Control, Gruul Stompy and Rakdos Vampires
The other challenger decks seem to show the same behaviour: we have an initial value that starts to decline a bit before the release date of the Challenger Decks, after which a local minimum is reached about 2 weeks later, followed by a period where the price is trending upwards again. Once more, the graphs below do not reflect the price trend of the challenger deck itself, but rather reflects the total price trend of all singles that constitude this decklist.
Dimir Control
Dimir control was the deck holding the most value with 2 copies of ‘Iymrith, Desert Doom’, 1 ‘Hullbreaker Horror’ and 4 ‘Shipwreck Marshes’ when the challenger decks was announced. It had it’s value over 100 euro. The following graphs show how the price trend and availability was greatly influenced by the release of the challenger decks.
Gruul Stompy and Rakdos Vampires
For completeness, both Gruul Stompy and Rakdos Vampires are shown below. We can make the same conclusions about their influence as above for the other challenger decks and singles!
Edit 2/5/2022
Goldspan Dragon
Even the might Goldspan Dragon was not resilient to the influx of additional supply from Gruul Stompy precon decks!
Something about comparing apples to apples…
As an edit to the original post: I received the remark to have a look at the cards that are still staples, but that did not get included in one of these 75. So, hereafter a couple of graphs that try to give some insight into these.
Mono White’s finest
The card that is present in the challenger decks is clearly identifiable from the supply spike that happened. What stands out most to me from these graphs is that availability is not necessarily reflected in the card price which is highly visible in the price difference between Adeline and Brutal Cathar. Both Adeline and Brutal Cathar see standard play, but on top of that Adeline is played in Commander as well.
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt dual lands
Once more, the supply spike and corresponding price drop is highly visible for the dual lands that were printed in Innistrad: Midnight Hunt. The lands that have not been reprinted see a continuing decline in availability and my expectation is that both Rockfall Vale and Shipwreck Marsh will be soon see a decline in availability as well.
Manlands from Adventures in the Forgotten Realms
The manlands still remain in demand, availability is declining and price trend is upwards.
In summary
These numbers for the challenger decks show a considerable amount of influence on the prices and supply on the secondary market. There is a clear sweet spot when you might want to pick up some of the cards contained in these decks cheaply.
If you would like to have a view on some singles contained in the Gruul and Rakdos deck, don’t hesitate to request them in the comments section below and I would gladly add them.
Thanks for the nice analysis! Will be interested to see if that modest price recovery over the last couple of weeks is a dead cat bounce. I suspect there's still a ton of these decks sitting around. Also, seems like Goldspan Dragon was maybe a little more resilient(?).
I've updated the post with the Goldspan Dragon information. But, to me, it doesn't look like Goldspan Dragon was an outlier. It's value got a big hit, knowing where it came from.