Following up on the last week’s post Where are we one week after Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty’s release weekend, I had a new look at how the graphs have been evolving, 2 weeks after it’s release. Before getting to that, I was quite happy someone wanted to donate a contribution for these posts. So in reaction to that, I’ve added a paypal donation button to these pages and I would like to thank the contributor the donation he made! That being said, don’t hesitate to give further feedback in the comments below or reach out to me on reddit. Now, let’s have a look at the most recent data!
Broad Strokes
On social media, people have been indicating that the set is opened a lot. Based on the data, I seem to agree with these remarks. Looking at the amount of available mythics and rares on Cardmarket for “Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty” and comparing them (visually) to the
availability of mythics and rares in “Innistrad: Crimson Vow”, we might conclude that this set is indeed opened a lot more up to now. Where the amount of mythics and rares for Crimson Vow makes it barely past the 350 and 2000 items, for Kamigawa, the amounts are readily surpassing these thresholds. I’m not quite sure though how this might influence the prices in the longer run.
For your reference, the figures hereafter represent the amount of available nonfoil regular art items and their trend prices. Each colored line in the figures below reflects a single card’s evolution for the represented rarity. The black dotted lines are resepectively the prerelease and release dates for Kamigawa.
Selected Mythics
From the broad strokes graphs above, a couple of mythics are worth zooming in on. These are listed hereafter
Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant
Jin-Gitaxias is still the most expensive regular art mythic. Nevertheless, it has seen a steady increase in supply and a dropping price trend. For the little data I’ve gathered so far, intuitively, I believe a price point of 12 euros is still on the high side for a card with more then 1500 items available (and rising).
Planeswalkers
WotC has given us 4 new planeswalkers with Kamigawa. 2 weeks in, “The Wandering Emperor” has certainly proven to be a popular card from this set, which is now clearly reflected in the dropping amount of available items and steadily increasing price trend. With less then 1000 items available and supply further declining, I believe this card to represent an interesting short-term spec.
Whether Tezzeret, Kaito and Tamiyo will be holding their value, is not yet clear from the trend lines. Kaito’s drop in supply might be too small to be relevant for the time being, but it’s certainly worthy too put it on your watch list.
Hidetsugu Consumes All
If there is mythic that really warrants a closer follow-up, then it seems this might be “Hidetsugu Consumes All”. The available items have declined fast the last couple of days towards the magical number of 1000 available items. The “From” price on cardmarket is already 2 euros over the “Price Trend”. Personally, I’m not immediately certain what is driving this supply decrease.
Selected Rares
Channel Lands
The channel lands seem to be the rares that hold most value amongst the Kamigawa rares. Boseiju’s price might be stabilizing, whereas Otawara’s demand is steadly pushing it’s price upwards. What currently stands out to me is that the amount of available items for Otawara is a lot less then for Boseiju. Which is a kind reminder that the availability is not the only factor for the price determination of a card
Outro
Well, that’s it for week 2. For the time being, I don’t intent to write a “week 3” type of article. I believe the set and item availability will now enter some kind of “steady-state” where the amount of available items and price trend will mainly be determined by the amount of boosters that are opened from drafts and the shifting (standard?) meta… Instead, I might take some time to have a deeper and better understanding of the data I’ve captured so far.
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